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Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

ag免费试玩|平台人生网 2019-11-07 04:47 创业新闻 117次

原标题:Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事 来源:腾讯自选股综合

Summary

Amazon market-multiple valuation= $1,317.12.

Investments are contributing only to more sales.

Competition is hindering Amazon's growth.Intro

Amazon's revenue came in higher than expected but missed earnings estimates. Last quarter, I outlined why the miss was more revealing than analysts reported. Thesis: Amazon's lack of operating income growth reflects its tradeoff of growth in its most profitable business unit (BU), AWS for growth in its zero-margin North American (NA) and international (INT), presenting a plethora of risks and implied share price of $1,317.12.Earnings overview

Sales for the quarter came in at $70 billion, a 24% increase YoY, but operating income decreased 13.51% from $3.7 billion to $3.2 billion. Net income was about twice as worse, decreasing 27.59% from $2.9 billion to $2.1 billion. Bezos attributed the loss to more focus on customer convenience, with one-day shipping taking the fore. Credit whereit's due, Amazon did increase its shipping and related expenses for the quarter, but it emulates the opportunity cost associated with growing its much more lucrative Amazon Web Services (AWS) BU.

One-day shipping's customer stickiness and brand appreciating benefits are great, but the gains are only increasing Amazon's least profitable and largest segments. Furthermore, the lack of free cash flow generation hinders Amazon's other venturesit's getting off the ground, such as its healthcare joint venture and Amazon Go stores. The cloud industry has grown considerably, but is still young so failure to invest rapidly will deplete Amazon's early mover advantage. Therefore, a miss to earnings because of getting products to customers faster instead of investing, heavily, in its main profit-driver should be met with investor concern.

From an AWS Lens

AWS has become the brain-child of Bezos. Since its conception, it has delivered the best margins of all Amazon's segments. However, in recent years, competition and lack of invested capital have taken a toll onAWS' sales and operating income. As rivals such as Microsoft and Google increase their respective investments in the space, Amazon is forced to trade-off slimmer margins and decreases in sales. Most recently, Microsoft has shown its dominance (lobbying at least) by beating out Amazon (and IBM, Oracle) for the coveted, $10 billion JEDI contract offered up by the Pentagon.

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

Figure 1: Amazon's segments (sales & YoY growth)

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

Figure 2: Segmented operating incomes

As you can see in figure 1, Amazon's share of AWS:rest of company is not improving the way its price implies. It is essentially the only driver of income at this point, so failure to divert investment to the section is an encumbrance to shareholders. Amazon maintained impressive YoY AWS growth but it has been dropping, considerably. Referring to figure 2, domestic growth declines and international losses are derailing any profit from AWS.AWS' margins have hit a ceiling although sales continue to accumulate, showing the trend mentioned earlier, which is leaning more towards its older,somewhatprofitable BUs.

AWS' growth is absolutely essential, in the short & long term. Especially considering Amazon's bottom-line has plateaued almost completely in the past 5 quarters. Its slowing growth would not be of concern if it were not for the increase in costs and exposure to its oldest, and most well-known business unit: e-retail.

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

Figure 3: Amazon segment proportions (Q3, 2019)

Even though Amazon's revenue beat forecasts, it is only due to its increase in goods and services attributable to the international and North American segments. This is abundantly clear in figure 1, asAWS' growth has been on a steady decline. I included the monetary values in the pie chart to make the point that yes, AWS growth is still far above other segments, butAWS' gross sales are about 5 and 2 times smaller than the NA and INTsegments, respectively. Therefore, to even catch up to international salesgrowth, AWS would need to more than double its sales--and this assumes sales overseas stagnatecompletely. Looking at the gross increases YoY:

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

Figure 4: Gross sales ($), (%) change & gross margin

As seen above, AWS is the star, raking in more than 10x the profit margin of NA (we can just neglect INT for now). This is why stakeholders should be harking the last earnings call much more. The consensus is to shrug off the earnings decline this quarter, and last quarter for that matter, because Amazon is just returning to growth mode. Logically, then, if Walmart were to just sell more at 0 margins while creating a small BU, would you pay more of a risk premium for it? Even then, an 80x earnings premium? It just does not rationally make sense.

*You may think that Amazon is different because it is investing in technologically-orientated growth, but remember who pioneered UPC, IT infrastructure, and the first mass-retail logistics syndicate: Walmart. Amazon's capex towards its retail segments showsAWS' vulnerability. Think, based on trade-off theory, why would you ever spend (burn) this much capital to get a product into customers' hands,when you are making 10 times more moneywith AWS? Because Walmart is easier to compete with than Google and Microsoft; losing the bid for the JEDI contract is testament to this.Competition

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

Figure 5: Cloud competition YoY growth and margin analysis

The cloud infrastructure as a service (IaaS) industry is becoming saturated. Companies were picked not only because of their participation but also similar offerings. IBM is the exception, honestly only because their financials are too convoluted for a college student to dedicate his time to. The data for Google reflects its "other" segment which is primarily comprised of cloud revenue. Oracle is >80% pure player, and all other business segments are related so I used its bare revenue/margin. Microsoft's "intelligent cloud" segment is clear and concise; the transparency is pretty admirable.

Although Google's YoY growth is eclipsing Amazon, that is not the main concern for Bezos. Instead, Microsoft has been making significant investments in the space. While its growth rate does it no justice, its sheer sales make Amazon's #1 competitor much more clear.

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

Figure 6: Amazon and Microsoft cloud segment sales & income

Although volatile seasonally, Microsoft has managed to thrive in the cloud computing space. Winning the JEDI bid is proof of their market dominance (and lobbying power, but I stick to what I kind of know).

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

Figure 7: Amazon & Microsoft cloud margins

There has been a lot of buzz aroundAWS' profitability, yet Microsoft's earnings' margins have consistently beat out Amazon's. To be fair, both have raked in impressive profits in the industry, but the graph above makes it more than clear these competitors are strategic substitutes: One's good fortune (in cloud computing*) in gains is reflected by losses in the other. Considering the trends, a gain in profitability for Amazon is reflected as losses for Microsoft, and vice versa.

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

Figure 8: Microsoft investor presentation

I was harking on Amazon primarily growing its online-retail segment primarily because it has many other competitors who have a lot more capital to throw around. If we are comparing sizes, last quarter Microsoft raked in $10.4 billion infree cash flow,spent $4.8 billionon the cloud--which has remaining performance obligations of$86 billion(Microsoft, Q1 2020 slide deck (comparable to Amazon's Q3, 2019). Microsoft dwarfs Amazon'snet incomeof $2.1 billion, which is about5 times smallerthan Microsoft's FCF (I used net income to further elaborate on the comparison). Amazon would have to double its FCF with leverage to even match Microsoft's exceedingly large investments. How are investors expectingAWS' growth and margins (which are clearly priced into its high valuation) to continue to grow, especially considering they have shown flagrant signs of maturing in at least the past year (figure 2)?

Considering Azure growth, Microsoft's specific competing BU with AWS, led the "intelligent cloud's" growth by an immense 59%, it is time to reign in the valuations on Amazon. Couple this with Microsoft's propensity to spend on cloud and Amazon is not looking good. Although Microsoft's valuation has hovered above $1 trillion for a while, its market multiples are still about half that of Amazon's. Therefore, the AWS (and ensuing FCF growth?) growth, or meaningful growth in general, argument is just wrong.Market Multiple Valuation

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

Figure 9: Amazon market-multiple valuation

Considering the competitive landscape, financially superior rivals and elusive profitability (due to relatively small gains in the highly profitable AWS to offset nil profit from ecommerce) Amazon should be valuated against its peers. This market multiple calculates Amazon's implied share price by comparing its market-multiples to similar companies. I chose Google, Microsoft, Oracle and--Walmart. The intuition behind the Google and Microsoft is their cloud exposure, and growth in not only the cloud but also their top-line. Keep in mind these companies have much more lucrative main BUs than Amazon. Oracle and Walmart essentially make the proportions of Amazon, the former representing AWS whereas the latter represents Amazon's North American and International segments in industry and profitability.

The implied share price arrived at $1,197.38, representing a 33.68% decline from its 11/04/19 closing price of $1804.66. The relative power and accumulated growth of its technological rivals fortify this price target. However, with its sustained high valuation, it is a fair assumption Amazon will reach levels ~10% above (=1,317.12). Catalysts to be on the watch for include: international trade dysfunction, developments in the repo market, internal/external controversies. With a beta of around 1.5, a ten% correction will pull Amazon to these levels, without a doubt.Closing Remarks

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

Figure 10: Amazon EPS revisions; source:FactSet

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

Figure 11: Average Amazon price target; source:FactSet

Referring to figure 10, analysts have been particularly bearish on Amazon's bottom-line growth in the past year. The magnitude of downgrades has increased tremendously, but the following figure (figure 11) shows its average price target which has stayed inflated. Analysts are most likely unknowingly catering their anchoring and adjustment heuristic: they attribute Amazon's current stage to its old run-up to profitability. The issue is that it is not finally turning a profit, rather it has, and is not. As profitability wanes, price targets are slow to follow as investors write-off marginally decreasing profits as Amazon just returning to growth mode. Especially considering the growth is all organically-driven by its least profitable segments (can I get a whoop-whoop?).

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

Data by YCharts

Amazon's recent performance reflects its changed capital allocation strategy. It is a decent growth play, but with economic head-winds such as deteriorating manufacturing data and an earnings recession (yes, we are technically in an earnings recession), it presents too much risk. Way too much for an 80x P/E.

Cheers.Appendix:

Exhibit A: FactSet earnings reportReports Q3:Revenue $69.98B vs FactSet $68.83BGAAP operating income $3.16B vs FS $2.94B and guidance $2.1-3.1BQ4 Guidance:Revenue $80.0-86.5B vs FactSet $87.39BOperating income $1.2-2.9B vs FactSet $4.19B

Disclosure:I am/we are short AMZN.I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

发明内容

亚马逊市场-倍数估值=1,317.12美元。

投资只会促进更多的销售。

竞争正在阻碍亚马逊的增长。简介

亚马逊的收入高于预期,但低于预期。上个季度,我概述了为何此次失误比分析师报告的更具启发性。论点:亚马逊的营业收入增长不足反映了它在其最赚钱的业务部门(BU)、AWS对其零利润率的北美(NA)和国际(INT)的增长的权衡,带来了过多的风险和隐含的1,317.12美元的股价

该季度销售额为700亿美元,同比增长24%,但营业收入从37亿美元下降到32亿美元,降幅为13.51%。净利润大约是这一数字的两倍,从29亿美元下降到21亿美元,下降了27.59%。贝佐斯将这一损失归因于更加关注客户的便利性,一天的运费占了上风。值得称赞的是,亚马逊确实增加了本季度的运费和相关费用,但它模仿了与增长更有利可图的亚马逊网络服务(AWS)BU相关的机会成本。

一天运费的客户粘性和品牌欣赏的好处是巨大的,但收益只是增加了亚马逊利润最低的部分和最大的部分。此外,缺乏自由现金流产生阻碍了亚马逊的其他风险投资,例如其医疗合资企业和亚马逊Go商店。云计算行业已经有了相当大的增长,但还很年轻,因此如果不能迅速投资,将会耗尽亚马逊的先行者优势。因此,由于将产品更快地送到客户那里而不是在其主要利润驱动力上进行大量投资而导致的收益损失应该受到投资者的关注。

从AWS镜头

AWS已经成为贝佐斯的智囊团。自构思以来,它提供了亚马逊所有细分市场中最好的利润率。然而,近几年来,竞争和投资资金不足对AWS的销售和运营收入造成了影响。随着微软(Microsoft)和谷歌(Google)等竞争对手增加各自在该领域的投资,亚马逊被迫在利润率下降和销售额下降之间进行权衡。最近,微软在五角大楼提供的价值100亿美元的绝地合同中击败了亚马逊(以及IBM和甲骨文),显示了其主导地位(至少是游说)。

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

图1:亚马逊的细分市场(销售额和同比增长)

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

图2:分段经营收入

如图1所示,Amazon在AWS中的份额:公司的其余部分并没有改善其价格所暗示的方式。在这一点上,它本质上是唯一的收入驱动因素,因此未能将投资转移到这一部分是对股东的一种负担。亚马逊保持了令人印象深刻的同比AWS增长,但一直在大幅下降。参照图2,国内增长下降和国际亏损使来自AWS的任何利润脱轨。AWS的利润率达到了上限,尽管销售继续积累,显示了前面提到的趋势,即更倾向于其较旧的,一些有利可图的巴士。

从短期和长期来看,AWS的增长是绝对必要的。特别是考虑到亚马逊的利润在过去5个季度几乎完全持平。如果不是因为成本的增加和对其最古老、最知名的业务部门--电子零售的暴露,它缓慢的增长就不会引起关注。

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

图3:亚马逊细分市场比例(2019年第3季度)

尽管亚马逊的收入超过了预期,但这仅仅是因为其国际和北美市场的商品和服务有所增加。这一点在图1中非常清楚,因为AWS的增长一直在稳步下降。我将货币值包括在饼图中是为了表明,是的,AWS的增长仍然远远高于其他细分市场,但AWS的总销售额分别是NA和INT细分市场的5倍和2倍。因此,为了赶上国际销售增长,AWS需要将销售额翻一番以上--这是假设海外销售完全停滞。查看同比增长总额:

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

图4:总销售额($),(%)变动和毛利率

如上所述,AWS是明星,它的利润率是NA的10倍以上(我们现在可以忽略INT)。这就是为什么利益相关者应该更多地关注上一次财报电话会议的原因。人们的共识是对本季度和上一季度的收益下降不屑一顾,因为亚马逊刚刚回到增长模式。那么,从逻辑上讲,如果沃尔玛只是以零利润率卖出更多,同时创建一个小BU,你会为它支付更多的风险溢价吗?即使那样,80倍的收益溢价?这在理性上是没有道理的。

*您可能认为亚马逊与众不同,因为它正在投资以技术为导向的增长,但请记住是谁开创了UPC、IT基础设施和第一个大规模零售物流辛迪加:沃尔玛。亚马逊对零售部门的资本支出显示出AWS的脆弱性。想一想,根据权衡理论,当你通过AWS赚了10倍的钱时,你为什么要花这么多钱(烧)把一件产品送到客户手中呢?因为沃尔玛比谷歌和微软更容易竞争;失去绝地合同的竞标证明了这一点。竞争

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

图5:云竞争同比增长和利润率分析

云基础设施即服务(IaaS)行业正趋于饱和。之所以选择公司,不仅是因为它们的参与,也是因为它们提供了类似的服务。IBM是个例外,老实说,仅仅是因为他们的财务状况对于一个大学生来说太复杂了,以至于不能把他的时间花在上面。谷歌的数据反映了它的“其他”部分,这一部分主要由云收入组成。甲骨文是超过80%的纯玩家,所有其他业务部门都是相关的,所以我使用了它的赤裸裸的收入/利润率。微软的“智能云”部分清晰简洁;透明度相当令人钦佩。

尽管谷歌的同比增长令亚马逊黯然失色,但这并不是贝佐斯的主要担忧。相反,微软一直在该领域进行重大投资。虽然它的增长率并不公平,但它的销售额让亚马逊的头号竞争对手变得更加清晰。

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

图6:Amazon和Microsoft云细分市场的销售和收入

尽管季节性波动,微软还是设法在云计算领域蓬勃发展。赢得绝地竞标证明了他们的市场支配地位(和游说能力,但我坚持我所知道的)。

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

图7:Amazon和Microsoft云利润

AWS的盈利能力引起了广泛关注,但微软的盈利利润率一直超过亚马逊。公平地说,两家公司都在该行业获得了令人印象深刻的利润,但上面的图表更清楚地表明,这些竞争对手是战略替代品:一方(在云计算领域*)的收益好运气反映在另一方的亏损中。考虑到趋势,亚马逊盈利能力的提高反映为微软的亏损,反之亦然。

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

图8:Microsoft Investor演示文稿

我对亚马逊很感兴趣,主要是因为它有很多其他竞争对手,他们有更多的资金可以投入。如果我们比较规模,上个季度微软在云上获得了104亿美元的内部现金流,花费了48亿美元--还有860亿美元的剩余绩效义务(微软,2020年第一季度)(与亚马逊的2019年第三季度相当)。微软使亚马逊的净收入21亿美元相形见绌,比微软的FCF小了大约5倍(我用净收入进一步阐述了比较)。亚马逊将不得不利用杠杆将其FCF翻一番,甚至与微软极其庞大的投资相匹敌。投资者如何预期AWS的增长和利润率(这显然反映了AWS的高估值)将继续增长,特别是考虑到他们至少在过去一年中已经显示出明显的成熟迹象(图2)?

考虑到Azure Growth,微软与AWS的特定竞争业务部门,以59%的巨大增长引领了“智能云”的增长,是时候统治亚马逊的估值了。再加上微软倾向于在云上花钱,亚马逊看起来不太好。虽然微软的估值已经在1万亿美元以上徘徊了一段时间,但它的市场倍数仍然是亚马逊的一半左右。因此,AWS(以及随之而来的FCF增长?)增长,或一般意义上的增长,其论点是错误的。市场综合估值

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

图9:Amazon市场-多重估值

考虑到竞争格局、财务上优越的竞争对手和难以捉摸的盈利能力(由于高盈利AWS的收益相对较小,以抵消电子商务带来的零利润),亚马逊应该相对于其同行进行估值。这个市场倍数通过将其市场倍数与类似公司进行比较来计算亚马逊的隐含股价。我选择了谷歌,微软,甲骨文和沃尔玛。谷歌和微软背后的直觉是他们的云暴露,以及不仅是云的增长,还有他们的营收。请记住,这些公司拥有比亚马逊更有利可图的主总线。甲骨文和沃尔玛基本上使亚马逊的比例,前者代表AWS,而后者代表亚马逊的北美和国际部门的行业和盈利能力。

隐含股价达到1,197.38美元,较11/04/19年度收盘价1804.66美元下跌33.68%。其技术竞争对手的相对实力和累积增长加强了这一价格目标。然而,随着其持续的高估值,可以合理地假设亚马逊将达到高于10%的水平(=1,317.12)。需要关注的催化剂包括:国际贸易障碍、回购市场的发展、内部/外部争议。在Beta为1.5左右的情况下,10%的修正将毫无疑问地将Amazon拉到这些水平。结束备注

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

图10:Amazon EPS修订版;来源:FactSet

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

图11:亚马逊平均价格目标;来源:FactSet

参照图10,分析师对亚马逊过去一年的利润增长尤其悲观。降级的幅度已经大大增加,但下图(图11)显示了其保持膨胀的平均价格目标。分析师们很可能在不知不觉中迎合了他们的锚定和调整启发式:他们将亚马逊的当前阶段归因于其盈利能力的旧上升。问题是,它最终没有盈利,相反,它有,也没有。随着盈利能力的减弱,价格目标的执行速度很慢,因为投资者注销了亚马逊刚刚恢复增长模式时略有下降的利润。特别是考虑到增长都是由利润最低的部分有机驱动的(我能得到一个好消息吗?)

Amazon, A Growth Story With 34% Downside亚马逊,一个有34%负面影响的增长故事

按YCharts列出的数据

亚马逊最近的表现反映了其资本配置策略的变化。这是一种不错的增长策略,但在制造业数据恶化和收益衰退等经济逆风的情况下(是的,从技术上讲,我们正处于收益衰退),它带来了太多的风险。对于80x的P/E来说太多了。

干杯附录:

附件A:FactSet收益报告第三季度:收入69.98亿美元vs FactSet$68.83BGAAP营业收入$3.16亿vs FS$2.94B和指南$2.1-3.1BQ4指南:收入$80.0-86.5B vs FactSet$87.39B营业收入$1.2-2.9亿vs FactSet$4.19亿

披露:我/我们很少AMZN,我自己写了这篇文章,它表达了我自己的观点。我没有得到它的补偿(除了寻求阿尔法)。我与本文中提到股票的任何公司都没有业务关系。

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